Could Reform UK win an upset victory?
The sentencing of the former Labour MP Mike Amesbury has sparked speculation that there could be a by-election in his constituency of Runcorn and Helsby.
Will there be a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby to replace Mike Amesbury?
Mike Amesbury has received a 10 week prison sentence following his conviction for assault. Amesbury is expected to appeal his sentencing.
Under the 2015 Recall of MPs Act, if an MP receives a custodial sentence for less than one year, a recall petition is triggered within their constituency. MPs receiving a custodial sentence of more than one year are automatically removed from office.
Once a recall petition is triggered, a by-election will take place if 10 per cent of voters in a constituency sign the petition.
Since the legislation was introduced, there have been six recall petitions for MPs. Four of them triggered a by-election, one did not reach the required number of signatures, and the final one was terminated due to the MP resigning while the process was ongoing.
Whether or not a recall petition will be triggered in Runcorn and Helsby will depend on whether Amesbury decides to appeal his sentencing and if that appeal is successful.
Who would win a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby?
In the 2024 general election, Labour won the seat with a majority of more than 14,000. The full breakdown of the results were:
- Labour: 52.9%
- Reform UK: 18.1%
- Conservative: 16%
- Green: 6.4%
- Liberal Democrats: 5.1%
- Liberal: 1.1%
- SDP: 0.3%
On paper, then, the seat looks extremely safe and Labour should hold it comfortably. However, there are at least two things which make it slightly less straight forward than it might first seem.
Firstly, voters don’t behave the same way in by-elections as they do in general elections. Turnout is typically significantly lower, meaning shifts in public opinion can appear much more pronounced. Additionally, voters aren’t voting at the same time as the rest of the country, meaning the MP they elect won’t impact which party will form a government the following day.
All of this means that by-elections can see significant swings between parties, and that smaller parties can outperform what they would be able to achieve in a general election.
Secondly, the national opinion polls suggest that support for Labour has dropped significantly since the general election, whereas support for Reform UK has risen substantially. Indeed, recent polls indicate that Reform would be on track to win the most votes if a general election were held now.
Looking at the five polls conducted between 16 and 21 February and applying the swing from these polls onto the Runcorn and Helsby results in the 2024 general election would puts Labour on 44.6% and Reform on 30.4%. While still suggesting a Labour victory, that’s a lot closer than what we saw at the general election.
Can Reform really win a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby?
The numbers above would suggest that Reform would be unlikely to win a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, if one takes place. However, using national opinion polls to try to project the results in an individual constituencies is a notoriously unreliable practice – especially when it comes to by-elections.
While we saw in the 2024 general election that Reform is capable of winning parliamentary seats, Nigel Farage’s party is yet to face a major electoral test since then. A by-election in this seat could be that test which illustrates whether the party can win other seats and translate the momentum it currently has from the opinion polls into winning seats.
Given that governments often lose seats they are defending in by-elections (the Tories lost 12 of the 15 by-elections between 2019 and 2024 that they were defending), it is entirely possibly that Reform could deliver an upset.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Oatsy40 – Creative Commons
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