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Good morning. Stephen is having a rare break from his mad schedule and we’re all punch-drunk from digesting the implications of the Spring Statement. You can find a cache of excellent FT analysis here. But in the meantime, I’m going to give Inside Politics readers a break too — at least from the economic gloom. Let’s have a look at the May electoral battles — now only weeks away — and the preparations in some quarters.
Inside Politics is edited by Harvey Nriapia today. Follow Miranda on Bluesky and X. Read the previous edition of the newsletter here. Please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com
Blue on blue
For now, let’s put aside the ongoing debates in Tory circles about whether or not to strike some sort of future bargain with Reform UK. Because at the beginning of May, elections to local councils and mayoralties will offer a litmus test of their rival fortunes. Plus a by-election in Runcorn is widely expected to be held the same day that will pit Reform as the hopefuls against Labour — bruised by the MP slinking away in disgrace (pro tip: don’t hit your constituents).
Psephos, a consultancy run by Alex Wilson, a Reform member of the Greater London Authority, has been tracking the on-the-ground fights. We can give you an Inside Politics exclusive on some of his findings today.
First off, he’s looked at how well his new party (Alex used to be a Conservative) has been doing in the areas due to have a local or mayoral fight in a few weeks’ time. I say due because a lot are postponed, including Thurrock — and look how well Nigel Farage’s party did there in the general election. But Lincolnshire is also fertile territory as you can see. Former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns is the Reform hopeful in the new Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty; her campaign launched two days ago. It’s already pretty nasty locally — which is expected with parties on such close territory — and the “Blue on Blue” nature of this year’s campaign will pit former party colleagues against each other. A toxic mix even before you get into the policies.
But Alex’s argument was a bit wider when I sat down to look at these figures with him. In previous incarnations, Farage’s parties didn’t behave like the others and were content to fight the “air war”, with an easy-to-communicate message and a leader who remains media catnip. This iteration is completely different, and the local fights will prove, he said, that they are now a “ground war” force too.
From last July to mid-April, Reform will have stood in 133 out of 232 by-elections (57.3 per cent of available contests). But it’s speeding up. Once you look at this year, Reform is standing in the vast majority, fighting 95 per cent of this month’s by-elections, for instance. The party can now get candidates in place and fight to win or build a base for the future. (This is the tried and tested third party model.) In terms of seats won, it’s also speeding up. And remember, the Tory-held seats that are up this time were won on Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce” — so they are vulnerable.
The Lib Dems have confirmed that Reform is flooding some areas with direct mail — which is effective, as well as very expensive — but claim it is doing less door-knocking. This is necessary for local fights to up your own turnout and convince each voter face-to-face on their tactical voting choice.
It was all yellow
Kemi Badenoch, meanwhile, may have seriously helped the Lib Dem preparations for the May local contests by — wait for it — publicly condemning them as the party that gets things done at the local level. Yes, you read that right. Ed Davey’s office is delighted with an interview she gave to Jordan Peterson where she sneered that the Lib Dems are “in local communities”. The Tory leader’s dismissal of the party in these terms: “A good Liberal Democrat will be somebody who is good at fixing their church roof. And you know, the people in the community like them”, is seen as an unwitting gift in local and even parliamentary fights. Prepare to see the traditionally soaking wet Davey now conducting his photo ops with a church roof — or community hall, I guess — in the background.
If you look at the chart below from Psephos’s Alex Wilson, you can see that in all the local council fights held this year and last, the two parties we’ve looked at today are the ones making the gains. So that pattern of splintering and a low total vote share for the main parties is continuing, at least for now.
Cancelled local government battles in some areas have been bad news for both of these parties — “this massively disadvantages us”, said a senior Lib Dem, lamenting a lack of action in Surrey, for example. With party apparatchiks crowing happily about a YouGov poll that put the Lib Dems in the lead in the south of England on 25 per cent (NB: outside London), like Reform, they regret the opportunity not to do better in the cancelled areas this May.
But Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire and bits of Cambridgeshire are looking good, they say. And in the new mayoralty of Hull and East Riding, the Lib Dem leader of Hull city council looks like he’ll be duking it out for runner-up with a Reform candidate who used to be an actual boxer. Let’s keep it verbal, lads. If nothing else, it helps the Lib Dems build support in a region they’ve been doing well in against long-standing Labour incumbency.
A warning: I hope where these two parties are in contention, this doesn’t become the sort of values polarisation — or even values sectarianism (I might trademark that) — that set the Lib Dems off up a blind alley in the Brexit years. They often seemed tempted to operate as a mirror image of Ukip and the Brexit party. But there’s a different mindset now, both in the parliamentary leadership and the campaigns department, focusing on the mainstream issues such as health and sewage that worked for them in the general election.
More on the reds, blues and also Greens to come in the run-up to May.
Now try this
Googling people with the same name as you is a really fun game. After this column about some of the ‘other’ Miranda Greens (yes, I know, to them I’m the ‘other one’, I get it), readers got in touch with some great alter egos. One friend says all hers are in jail — but she was always a rebel. Another started a Facebook group for hers they were so numerous. An FT colleague actually met up for lunch with her double. But is it Sliding Doors or Mickey 17?
