The Greens have made massive gains at each local election since 2019
On 1 May, voters across England will go to the polls to elect more than 1,600 councillors in 24 local authorities. Alongside this, there will be six mayoral elections.
In every set of local elections since 2019, the Greens have made substantial gains, meaning there are now over 800 Green councillors. The party is hoping to build on this recent success by getting many more councillors elected this year.
There are fewer seats up for election this year than most – partially due to it being primarily County Councils which have elections, and partially due to some elections being postponed as part of the reform of local government. This means that the number of seats it’s possible for the Greens to gain is lower than in recent years.
Despite this, there are a number of a factors that would suggest that the Greens could be about to see yet another year of big successes. The party is currently polling at record levels nationally, with some polls putting them as high as 13 per cent. Additionally, the party’s now professionalised campaigning operation has proven to be able to deliver significant election victories.
The party will be looking to make gains in places like Kent, Worcestershire and Warwickshire. In Oxfordshire, where the Greens are currently in joint administration with the Liberal Democrats, the party is looking to double or even triple its number of seats.
Overall, a good night for the Greens will see the party make at least 30 net gains, with anything over 50 being a very good night.
Outside of the council elections, there is at least one other race that could prove interesting for the Greens.
Historically, mayoral elections have proven to be extremely difficult for smaller parties to break through in. The large and diverse electoral areas they cover have meant that Labour and the Tories have typically dominated. This has only been exacerbated by the Tory government’s decision to scrap using a preferential voting system for these elections, replacing it with first past the post.
However, this year the West of England Combined Authority Mayoral Election could buck that trend. The area the mayor covers includes Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset, and South Gloucestershire.
The Greens have long had high levels of support in Bristol, something which has intensified in recent years with the Greens winning the Bristol Central parliamentary seat in 2024 and taking control of Bristol City Council earlier the same year.
If the high Green vote in Bristol can be complimented by strong support from elsewhere in the Mayoral area, the Greens could win a surprise victory here. Indeed, one opinion poll from YouGov suggests that the Greens have a four point lead over Labour.
If that’s borne out in reality, it would be an historic moment for British politics – the first time the Green Party would win a mayoral election. Keep an eye on this one as the votes start coming in after polls have closed on 1 May.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
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