‘Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government.’
A poll of potential local election results puts Reform UK neck and neck with the Conservatives on 25% of the vote, with Labour on 18% of the vote.
The Conservatives are estimated to lose significant support and councillors to Reform UK, with their adjusted vote share (reflecting the new local authority boundaries) falling from 46% in 2021 to 25% in this May’s elections.
In terms of the number of councillors elected, the Conservatives and Reform, which won no seats in 2021, are expected to win around 700 seats each.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are forecast to win around 400 seats and Labour around 300.
The government has postponed elections in nine English local authority areas from May 2025 to May 2026 to help with planning for local government devolution and creating unitary authorities in two-tier local government areas.
Focusing only on elections that are going ahead as scheduled, the poll suggests Reform could gain control of or be the largest party on eight councils, while the Conservatives are projected to win 10.
As the seats up for election are in rural shire areas rather than cities, Labour is not expected to perform as well.
The poll, conducted by Electoral Calculus on behalf of the Telegraph using Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) methodology, measured voting intentions for the local elections scheduled for 1 May 2025.
Polling took place from 1-10 March 2025, with a sample size of over 5,400 respondents.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our local election poll shows that the Conservatives are likely to make significant losses compared with their strong performance back in 2021.
“Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government. But the large-scale delays to elections, affecting over five and a half million voters, will soften the scale of Conservative losses and reduce Reform’s gains.”
Another MRP analysis by Electoral Calculus suggests that if an election were held today, Labour would secure the most seats in the House of Commons, with 189 MPs. However, this would be less than half of their current total, leaving them 137 seats short of a majority.
Notably, Electoral Calculus’ analysis suggests Labour would lose 121 parliamentary seats to Reform.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
Left Foot Forward doesn’t have the backing of big business or billionaires. We rely on the kind and generous support of ordinary people like you.
You can support hard-hitting journalism that holds the right to account, provides a forum for debate among progressives, and covers the stories the rest of the media ignore. Donate today.
