Top 5 local election battles to watch this May

With the local elections on 1 May, Left Foot Forward picks out the most competitive races and potential game-changers.

First things first. Where will local elections take place on 1 May? It’s a county council election year, which means it’s a ‘quieter’ election year. Since district councils elect by thirds, and county councils go to the polls every fourth year, fewer councils are in play compared to other local election cycles.

According to the Democracy Club, in terms of councillors elected, 2025 will be the smallest set of UK council elections since 1975. These seats were last up for election on 6 May 2021. 

Local elections are often seen as a barometer of the governing party’s popularity, but the areas holding elections this year are not typically strongholds for Labour. However, it will be interesting to watch what happens in Labour-controlled county councils like Doncaster and Thurrock.

The areas heading to the polls are:

• 14 county elections – Lancashire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Staffordshire, Worcestershire, Leicestershire, Warwickshire, Cambridgeshire, Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire, Herefordshire, Devon, Kent. 
• 8 unitaries – Northumberland, Durham, Shropshire, North Northamptonshire, West Northamptonshire, Cornwall, Wiltshire, Buckinghamshire
• 1 metropolitan district – Doncaster City Council
• the Isles of Scilly
• 4 combined authority mayors – West of England, Hull and East Yorkshire, Greater Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
• 2 directly elected mayors that cover a single authority in Doncaster and North Tyneside.
• 1 parliamentary seat – Runcorn and Helsby by-election.

In nine local authority areas, elections have been postponed pending local government organisation. These areas will be transitioning from a two-tier system of district and county councils to new unitary authorities. 

Areas where elections have been postponed are: Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Thurrock, Surrey, East Sussex, West Sussex, Hampshire, Isle of Wight. 

Ones to watch

1. Doncaster City Council

All 55 members of Labour-controlled Doncaster City Council, as well as the Mayor of Doncaster, who acts as leader of the council, are up for election. Reform UK is putting up candidates in all wards across Doncaster, after winning 20% of the vote at the 2024 general election. Furthermore, a poll conducted by Electoral Calculus for The Telegraph last month predicted that Reform could win 32 seats on the council, enough to take control of the council from Labour, which would be left with just 13 councillors. Not an outcome we want to see, but certainly one to keep an eye on. 

2. Lincolnshire County Council and Greater Lincolnshire Mayoral Election

Lincolnshire is a Conservative stronghold, but Reform UK is looking to make gains from them here. Tory turncoat (and former Tory minister) Andrea Jenkyns is running as Reform’s candidate for the Lincolnshire Mayoral Election, despite admitting she doesn’t live in Lincolnshire and will only move there if she becomes mayor. Reform is also standing candidates in every county council ward. 

The Conservatives currently hold 53 of the council’s 70 seats. Reform UK MP Richard Tice won Boston and Skegness last July, which shows there is support for the right-wing party. This contest will be one to watch as a test of how Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives perform on their home turf.

3. Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayoral Election

Labour won the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty from the Conservatives in 2021, but incumbent mayor Nik Johnson is not seeking re-election. A key change in this year’s contest is the shift from the supplementary vote system—which allowed voters to rank a first and second choice—to First Past the Post, where the candidate with the most votes wins outright. Former Peterborough MP Paul Bristow is standing for the Conservatives and is currently the frontrunner, with Labour’s Anna Smith seen as his main challenger. However, the Liberal Democrats’ Lorna Dupré could also be in contention.

The broader political picture in the area is finely balanced. Cambridgeshire County Council is under no overall control: the Conservatives hold 28 of 61 seats, while the Liberal Democrats made significant gains in 2021, taking 20 seats. On Peterborough City Council, Labour is the largest party, but the council has also been under no overall control in recent years. This three horse race is an interesting one.

4. Gloucestershire County Council

At the 2024 general election, the Lib Dems did well at targeting, and winning, Tory-held parliamentary seats where they were in second place—and that strategy could boost their chances in the upcoming county council elections. The Lib Dems said in their local election campaign launch that they could surpass the Tories as the second largest party in local government. Following a Conservative defection last May, Gloucestershire County council is now under no overall control: the Conservatives hold 25 seats, the Lib Dems 16, with Labour on five and the Greens on four – 28 seats are needed to win control of the council. In Oxfordshire and Shropshire, Electoral Calculus has also predicted that the Lib Dems could emerge as the largest party.

5. Kent County Council

Kent is currently Conservative-controlled, and although Reform UK holds just two seats on the council, there’s growing speculation that the party could make significant gains in the upcoming election. Of course, Nigel Farage’s visit to Kent, where he claimed Reform would perform well, doesn’t guarantee success—but polling by Electoral Calculus suggests the party could be on track to take control of the council. However, Farage’s party caused outrage last week when local residents flagged that they were distributing a leaflet that breached electoral rules by including the Kent County Council logo. It looks like candidate vetting is not the only area where they cut corners. 

Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward