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Sir Keir Starmer is facing a growing rebellion against his welfare reforms, even as ministers warn dissenting Labour MPs that a vote against the government could trigger the end of his premiership.
There are now more than 125 signatories of an amendment to block Starmer’s welfare legislation from its first major vote next week, according to MPs involved in the rebellion.
They said there were also two parliamentary private secretaries and three junior ministers who currently say privately that they will vote against the government, in what is set to be the biggest show of Labour dissent of Starmer’s premiership.
A “master list” compiled by organisers of the rebellion has 170 Labour MPs saying either publicly or privately they will not support the government, they added. It’s unclear how many will ultimately vote in opposition.
Changes proposed in the welfare bill would result in about 800,000 fewer people being entitled to disability benefits, many of whom need help washing themselves or using the toilet. The government has argued its reforms are needed to reduce costs and get people into work.
Ministers were calling signatories of the amendment on Tuesday warning them that the vote next week will in effect be a confidence vote in Starmer’s leadership, according to several MPs, as they seek to convince would-be rebels to think again.
The escalating rebellion puts Starmer in a precarious position despite the government’s massive 156 seat majority, won just under a year ago at the July 2024 general election.
If 80 Labour MPs vote against the government, along with the Tories and Lib Dems, it will be enough to kill the legislation, blowing a £5bn hole in the government’s annual budget.
The Liberal Democrats will whip their 72 MPs to vote against the government.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch challenged Starmer on Tuesday to commit to bigger cuts to welfare and not to raise any taxes at the next Budget, if he wanted the support of her 121 MPs. The government is widely expected to need to raise taxes at the next fiscal event.
One Labour MP said a senior minister had called them on Tuesday to say that a major rebellion next week “would cause a fresh leadership contest” and that “this could be the start of the end for Keir”.
The person said that they had separately been called by a different cabinet minister who asked them to remove their name from the list and promised to work hard to try to get the welfare reforms softened.
Another Labour MP said that ministers and whips were telling MPs that a major rebellion next week, “will result in a general election being called” and that “it’s going to bring the government down”.
The person said this argument did not phase them. “I would be happy to see a leadership contest, I think perhaps it’s time for change,” they said.
Starmer said publicly on Tuesday that the second reading next week is “not a confidence vote”. The government has not been expected to call an election until 2029, the final year of the current parliament.
Asked if he would offer concessions to mollify rebellious MPs, he told Sky: “We’re pressing on with a vote on this because we need to bring about reform.”
A senior Labour strategist said ministers were still convinced they could pick off rebels over the next week, principally by arguing that the rebellion would destabilise the government and boost Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform UK party.
The person added that Starmer would not want to get the bill through its second reading because of support from Badenoch’s Conservatives because ministers do not want the legislation to be “associated with the Tories”.
The rebels’ reasoned amendment — tabled by 11 Labour chairs of Commons select committees — states the welfare bill should not have its second reading in the House of Commons because its provisions have not been consulted on with disabled people and will push at least 250,000 people into poverty.
“They’ve tried hard today and everyone has just stayed firm,” the first Labour MP said of the government’s efforts to bring rebellious backbenchers into line.
They added that unhappy Labour MPs had tried to work behind the scenes with the government for several months to soften the proposed reforms and felt that it had yielded no results.
“These MPs have not taken the decision to come out publicly against the reforms lightly, they’re also not about to change their minds lightly,” they said.
