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Scottish first minister John Swinney will bring forward his legislative programme by four months to May 6 to deal with the increased likelihood of recession following US President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil.
Scotland’s programme for government, usually released in September, would be accelerated to allow a year of “delivery” ahead of Holyrood elections due on May 7 2026, Swinney told a press conference on Monday.
He said there was scope within next year’s £59.7bn budget to reallocate spending to deal with lower economic growth sparked by Trump’s tariffs, which unleashed turmoil in financial markets and sparked fears of a global recession.
“I can envisage circumstances where the Scottish National Investment Bank, which acts independently of government, would consider the economic landscape in which we are now operating, and that may be reflected in the decisions they take on investments,” Swinney said.
SNIB, which was established in 2020, has a mandate to fund projects that cut carbon emissions, reduce inequality and promote innovation and an annual budget of roughly £200mn.
Swinney said the spending priorities of other state agencies, such as Enterprise Scotland, or the government’s £150mn allocation for offshore wind projects, could be shifted to respond to recent events.
The ruling Scottish National party, routed in the UK general election last July, has put itself back into pole position ahead of next year’s Holyrood elections, owing to the Labour government’s poor start at Westminster and the rise of Reform UK splitting the unionist vote.
Swinney — who has sought to return the pro-independence party to bread-and-butter issues such as economic growth — said he would convene business and union leaders on Wednesday to map out a response to “emerging economic realities”, and that Scotland should influence UK trade talks with the US.
The US — which has slapped 10 per cent tariffs on British imports — is an important destination for Scotch whisky and salmon, and industry has welcomed UK efforts to reach a deal with the US.
Swinney also urged closer alignment with the EU. “If trade barriers are being constructed in the Atlantic, then they must be swept away in the Channel and North Sea,” he said.
Welcoming the UK government’s “urgency” in moving towards the nationalisation of British Steel, Swinney called for Grangemouth oil refinery also to be taken into public ownership.
Extending operations would help bridge the gap between the closure of Scotland’s last remaining oil refinery over the coming weeks and the longer-term work of developing green energy projects outlined in the Project Willow report for the site near Falkirk.
“I am determined to make sure that Scotland isn’t viewed as an afterthought by the UK government,” he said. “There is a need for activism in government.”
Refinery operator Petroineos, a joint venture between Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos and PetroChina, said the time to consider different ownership models for the refinery had been five years ago when it first alerted government about operational losses.
“It is vital all parties now co-develop a bright future for Grangemouth, producing low-carbon fuel and eventually creating hundreds of skilled jobs here again,” the company said.
