Reform UK wins knife-edge Runcorn by-election

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has won a knife-edge victory in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, toppling Labour in what has long been a party stronghold.

Reform won by just six votes in one of the closest by-election results in British political history.

Sarah Pochin ultimately won the Cheshire seat for Reform with 12,645 votes against 12,639 for Labour’s Karen Shore. 

The result was announced after a recount in a seat that Labour held in last July’s general election with a majority of almost 15,000.

The by-election is the most significant contest among dozens of mayoral races and council elections that took place on Thursday.

As well as Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are also expected to make gains, in the latest sign that Labour and the Conservatives are losing the duopoly they have held in British politics for decades.

The defeat in Runcorn will alarm Labour, which has endured a plunge in its popularity since returning to government in a landslide victory last July.

The Runcorn seat was held by former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, whose conviction for assault triggered the by-election.

Reform candidate Pochin campaigned on an anti-immigration ticket that targeted a local asylum hotel and capitalised on local anger about the government’s welfare cuts.

Labour championed the government’s extra funding for the NHS and its package of employment reforms, while it also tried to persuade former Green and Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically against Reform.

Early results in mayoral races also suggested a big swing towards Reform. Its candidate in Greater Lincolnshire, former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, won easily, while Reform also came close to toppling Labour in North Tyneside and Doncaster.

In North Tyneside in north-east England, Karen Clark won with 30.2 per cent, just ahead of Reform’s 29.4 per cent. Labour’s support in North Tyneside plunged 23 percentage points compared with 2021 when the party had won 53 per cent of the vote in the region. The Conservatives dropped 11 points to 21 per cent.

In Doncaster, Labour’s Ros Jones won with 23,805 votes, just ahead of Reform’s Alexander Jones at 23,107. 

Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform, said the early results were “very, very encouraging” for his party and suggested a “seismic shift” in voting patterns.

“So far I think we have taken more seats from Labour than from the Conservatives,” he told Sky News. “It’s fascinating that we’re taking so many votes from Labour in its heartlands.”

Ellie Reeves, the Labour party chair, said: “These elections were always going to be a challenge.”

She added: “We know people aren’t yet fully feeling the benefit and we are just as impatient for change as the rest of the country.”

Reform is currently running ahead in opinion polls on an average of 26 per cent, ahead of Labour on 24 per cent with the Conservatives trailing on 21 per cent, according to the Financial Times’ poll of polls.

Labour strategists fear that Reform could capture large parts of its former heartlands in northern England and the Midlands at the next general election.

In a sign of Labour’s low expectations for the by-election, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer did not visit the constituency in the run-up to polling day. 

Results due later on Friday are also expected to be a setback for Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, with her party forecast to lose hundreds of council seats.

The Tories are facing a threat from Reform and the centre-left Lib Dems, who hope for gains in southern councils.

This set of English councils was last contested when former premier Boris Johnson was enjoying heightened popularity thanks to a “vaccine bounce” during the Covid pandemic. 

The Conservatives’ shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake said: “If we lost half our seats, which I think we probably will do, it’s going to be a bad night for us.”