Strategy of ‘not being the Tories’ was enough to get Labour elected, but is a timebomb, says Compass
Labour’s strategy of ‘not being the Tories’ may have delivered a large majority, but is “a timebomb”, according to a new report by think tank Compass.
The report argues that Labour should mobilise the country’s latent progressive majority and win on a mandate for real change which makes future election victories more likely, rather than relying on courting centre-right voters.
Polling by Compass reveals that four in ten people who voted Labour in July 2024 either don’t identify as very strong Labour supporters or as supporters at all, and voted for purely tactical reasons, making the party’s majority “weak and brittle”.
In addition, when polled after the general election, 17% of voters said they regretted voting Labour and almost a quarter of Labour voters reported they would consider voting for the Green Party.
The report, called Thin Ice, warns that Labour’s vote is fragile, meaning it needs to work hard to retain those votes and increase its vote share to ensure a majority at the next election.
It cautions: “Labour would be making a big political error if it assumes all of its voters will continue to support the party regardless of its record”.
The election secured Labour a huge majority of 174 seats, with 411 MPs to the Conservatives’ 121. However, the First Past the Post voting system ‘distorted’ the result, as Labour’s national vote share was only 34%, marginally higher than in 2019, but the smallest for a majority-winning party in British political history.
Compass’ polling highlights that Labour would benefit more from appealing to progressive voters than from trying to win over the right.
It found that 28% of Liberal Democrat voters and 21% of Green voters are prepared to consider Labour as second preference.
This is compared to just 4% of Reform voters and 7% of Conservatives who would consider Labour as an alternative.
The report says that the polling shows there is “clear public support for Labour adopting a more radical progressive policy platform, with respondents saying they would have a more positive view of Labour if they supported a suite of big change policies”.
It emphasises that Labour’s victory is “fragile”, stating that 131 Labour seats were won by a margin of fewer than 5,000 votes, with 103 secured by less than 5% of the vote.
Compass’ analysis acknowledges the threat from right-wing parties, noting that there are 202 seats where a progressive candidate won, but the combined vote for the Conservatives and Reform was greater than the number of votes cast for the winning candidate.
However, it also highlights the threat from the left, with the Green Party now in second in 39 seats, the majority of which are Labour strongholds.
Compass urges Labour to adopt proportional representation in its report, which it says will create a “bedrock to long-term progressive change” and a greater voice to the progressive majority.
A recent YouGov poll found that voters favour switching to proportional representation over keeping the First Past the Post system by a nearly 2:1 margin.
Neal Lawson, Compass’s director, told the Guardian: “Voters now are less party-aligned and more volatile than they have ever been. If Labour fails to deliver in government, its huge but fragile majority will crumble, sending us on a bullet train to the populist right.
“But this isn’t inevitable. Labour can begin to assemble a coalition based on the UK’s progressive majority that will deliver lasting change and then allow it to win again.”
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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