“Why isn’t this headline news? The implications are horrifying …”
A new study has concluded that the collapse of a vital Atlantic Ocean current, which was once thought to be a low-likelihood risk, can no longer be considered unlikely. Yet, despite the potentially catastrophic implications, this alarming finding has barely been mentioned in mainstream media coverage.
The current is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), and is a key part of the global climate system. It carries warm water from the tropics northward, where it cools, sinks, and flows back south. But global warming is disrupting this cycle. Arctic ice melt, especially from Greenland, is flooding the region with lighter freshwater, weakening the current and making collapse more likely.
Earlier research showed that Amoc is now at its weakest in at least 1,600 years. A 2018 study estimated the current had weakened by 15% since 400 AD, largely due to human-driven climate change.
Until recently, climate models suggested a collapse of Amoc before 2100 was unlikely. But the new study extended models to 2300 and 2050, and the results were alarming. If carbon emissions continue to rise, 70% of model runs show the current eventually collapsing. Even under moderate emissions, collapse occurs in 37% of the models. Alarmingly, even under low-emissions scenarios, Amoc still collapses in 25% of the models.
A collapse of Amoc would have devastating global consequences, including dramatic shifts in tropical rainfall patterns, severe winters and summer droughts in Europe, and up to 50cm of added sea level rise. Scientists have long warned this must be avoided “at all costs.”
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the study’s authors, said the new results are “quite shocking,” because he used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%.
“Now even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%.
“These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10% chance of an Amoc collapse would be far too high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions,” he continued.
You might expect such a dire warning to dominate headlines. Instead, it went almost entirely unnoticed, reported only by the Guardian among major outlets.
The lack of media coverage about this major climate change warning didn’t go unnoticed.
Former Green MP Caroline Lucas asked the question on X: “Why isn’t this headline news? The implications are horrifying …”
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