Reform could come close to winning a majority on as little as 27% of the national vote share
The Electoral Reform Society has warned that First Past the Post could catapult Reform UK into government.
Its analysis of a recent YouGov poll found Reform is projected to win nearly half the seats in Parliament (48%) with just 27% of the vote.
The group said this represents “an undeserved bonus”, similar to how Labour elected 412 MPs at the 2024 general election by winning just 34% of the national vote share.
At a constituency level, they note that the average vote share of a winning candidate is only 34%, with some projected to win with as little as one in five votes.
For instance, Labour is projected to win Cardiff East with 22%, while Reform is projected to win Watford with just 23%.
The article said that “The fact that the views of 80% of voters are set to be completely ignored in some constituencies is a damning indictment of First Past The Post.
“It cannot be right that parties are winning (or are even close to winning) untrammelled parliamentary majorities with the support of as little as three-in-ten of those who turn out to vote.”
In the past, Nigel Farage has consistently called FPTP a “bankrupt” voting system.
In June 2024, Farage said that there would be pressure to change the “absolutely bankrupt” FPTP voting system if Labour secured a landslide and Reform was left with a handful of seats.
Before the last general election, the Reform leader said: “I think we’re going to get six million votes. If we don’t win many seats there’ll be considerable public anger. But if Keir Starmer gets 38 per cent and 500 seats there’ll be even greater anger and major changes coming”.
Reform got four million votes at the 2024 election.
However, with Reform riding high in polls, Farage said earlier this year that FPTP is becoming his “friend”.
He said on Sky News Australia in February: “First Past the Post can be your enemy but there comes an inversion point at which it becomes your friend.”
Farage said that looking at the polls, Reform is “literally at that inflection point”.
At a fringe event on electoral reform at Lib Dem Conference, MP Lisa Smart said Labour could face “an absolute disaster” in next year’s local elections, and may conclude that proportional representation is “in their best interests to stop Nigel Farage becoming PM”.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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