Yet another example of the Tory party and its mouthpieces in the right-wing press pushing untruths.
Yet another claim made by the Tory party and amplified by the right-wing press about migrants has been found to be misleading and inaccurate when subjected to scrutiny.
It was claimed by the Conservative Party that it had new analysis which showed that ‘migrants who cross the Channel in small boats are 24 times more likely to go to prison than the average British citizen’.
The claim was then picked up on and amplified by the likes of the Daily Mail, Daily Express, Times and GB News.
However, fact checking organisation FullFact says that it has repeatedly asked the Conservative Party about how it drew its conclusions and what the basis for its research was, but are yet to receive a response.
FullFact goes on to state: “But based on the details reported, the figure for how much more likely “Channel migrants” are to go to jail is not reliable. Most notably, that’s because the estimate compares 2025 prison data to 2021 population figures that are likely out of date, and appears to use data on the imprisonment of foreign nationals in general without considering whether people of a specific nationality who arrived via small boat crossing may be more or less likely to go to prison than their compatriots overall.
“Some of the details in the reports last week were also not accurate. After being contacted by Full Fact, the MailOnline corrected a line in its story claiming that “official data” showed “a whopping 3.4%—one in 30—small boat migrants end up behind bars”.
The University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory says there is no reliable publicly available data on the proportion of small boat arrivals who go to prison.
The manner in which the Times story calculated imprisonment rates is also misleading. Imprisonment rates for specific nationalities were calculated by dividing the number of people of each nationality in custody as of 31 March 2025 by the total number of people in England and Wales who held a passport from that country as of the 2021 Census.
Not only have population demographics and data changed since 2021, to compound matters the prison data used by the Conservatives makes no distinction between those in prison who came via small boat or other routes.
We also don’t know how many of the foreign nationals held in custody do not have the right to be here, how many are on a valid visa, and how many have indefinite leave to remain or another status.
Yet another example of the Tory party and its mouthpieces in the right-wing press pushing untruths.
Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward
Left Foot Forward doesn’t have the backing of big business or billionaires. We rely on the kind and generous support of ordinary people like you.
You can support hard-hitting journalism that holds the right to account, provides a forum for debate among progressives, and covers the stories the rest of the media ignore. Donate today.
