Dozens of universities across the US risk losing an estimated $1bn in collective tuition fees from new international students unwilling or unable to study in the country as a result of actions by Donald Trump’s administration.
Tougher scrutiny of applicants, visas processing delays and immigration detentions on campuses and at the border are striking fear among both students and university administrators, which have increasingly looked abroad in recent years to fill places and generate income.
FT analysis of data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) shows 162 institutions with at least 1,000 students from urban research universities to small liberal arts colleges in the US heartlands are particularly vulnerable, given that more than 15 per cent of their student populations are from abroad.
Three-quarters of US universities surveyed in recent weeks by NAFSA, a network of organisations engaged in international education and exchanges, anticipate a fall in international student numbers this year, with the majority expecting a drop of at least 10 per cent.
That would represent a hit of nearly $900mn in direct revenues, based on an estimate by Shorelight Analytics, an educational consultancy, of $8.6bn in total fees from incoming international students.
A similar 10 per cent drop across all existing foreign students would create a $3bn gross hit, based on FT calculations of $29.5bn in enrolment and average tuition figures from NCES, although these combine the costs for students pursuing PhDs, master’s degrees, or other professional programs, which vary greatly.
Joann Ng Hartmann, NAFSA’s senior impact officer, said: “The mood is one of frustration and uncertainty. To see this very much self-imposed pain we’ve created is very problematic. We are putting yet another burden on students and schools pursuing their academic dreams.”
While the tuition data does not take into account financial aid, international students are ineligible for federal support and likelier than their domestic peers to pay closer to the nominal “sticker” price — making them pivotal to many schools’ finances, especially at a time of declining admissions and federal research grant cuts.
Universities are seeking to compensate for anticipated reductions in foreign students by making renewed offers with additional financial aid to domestic students on wait lists. But most have by now accepted places elsewhere and will typically generate lower tuition income than those from abroad.
A professor at one university in the north-east of the US with a high share of Indian and Chinese students said: “It’s the topic nobody wants to talk about, but it’s keeping all of us up at night.”
Claiming it is cracking down on antisemitism and alleged leftwing bias on campus, the Trump administration has targeted Harvard’s right to teach any foreign students — a decision currently being fought in the courts.
But it has also sparked fear and uncertainty by deregistering — and then temporarily reinstating — nearly 5,000 existing foreign students. It has also detained dozens, introduced tougher rules to scrutinise applicants’ social media accounts and prioritised approvals of applicants to universities where foreigners account for less than 15 per cent of the total.
Any reductions will hit colleges such as the University of Central Missouri, whose enrolment was 24 per cent international in 2023. Most of its international students come from India to pursue the school’s graduate programmes in information technology.
“It’s a big part of our business model,” said Tim Crowley, provost and vice-president for academic affairs at the University of Central Missouri. “We are hoping we’ll just be able to slide through this next year, really the next three years, with margins that are less.”
Already, Crowley said the University of Central Missouri has seen incoming students unable to secure visas for the fall, and others have expressed concern about their ability to reach the US. “Pressure is on us to have answers, and it’s very frustrating when you have no answers,” he said.
A separate survey completed in early June by the Institute of International Education suggested two-fifths of US universities expected foreign undergraduate student numbers to be lower next year and nearly half for graduates.
Projections of waning enrolment follow years of an expanding international presence on American campuses. Since 2013, the number of international students grew by more than 200,000 to reach 1.17mn in 2023, despite a drop during the COVID-19 pandemic.
International students have been important to the growth of many US universities, including the University of the Ozarks. A little over a decade ago, the liberal arts college in Clarksville, Arkansas, faced a dwindling enrolment and redoubled its international recruitment efforts to boost the school’s population and benefit from a multicultural campus.
In 2023, almost a third of students at the school of 873 came from outside the US, primarily from the Bahamas and Central America. Joey Hughes, executive director of admissions at the University of the Ozarks, said the school is prepared to weather uncertainty in the near future, but “the long term effects could be catastrophic”.
Some universities say they have yet to see any “summer melt” in the number of foreign students who have been offered places but who ultimately fail to enrol after urging them to apply early for visas.
Visa processing has only recently resumed after the new guidelines were circulated to US consulates, with reports of substantial delays and a refusal of emergency appointments, notably in the countries sending among the largest number of students: China, India and Nigeria.
Institutions are exploring tactics including deferred entry or partnerships with foreign universities and the option of remote, online study pending visa approvals.
However, early indications suggest an uptick in acceptances by foreign students to alternative offers in other countries including across Europe, Canada, Australia and parts of Asia.
Even Colleen Hanycz the president of Xavier University in Ohio, a green card holder, said she was advised by her own legal team not to return to her native Canada for the summer holidays over fears about being detained at immigration on her return.
