Nine years on, it seems as though those who had rubbished ‘experts’ for warning about the dire impact of Brexit on the economy, could do with some quiet reflection.
On the ninth anniversary of the vote to leave the European Union, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s projections in terms of the negative impact it would have on state of the public’s finances have materialised, despite pro-Brexit economists questioning its findings at the time.
Today marks nine years since the EU referendum took place, amid a divisive campaign that saw the Vote Leave campaign accused of peddling untruths and sensationalist claims. While economic experts warned at the time of the adverse impact Brexit would have on the UK economy, Brexiteers poured scorn on the findings.
Now a forecasting audit finds that the OBR’s projections were correct.
The Times reports: “On the ninth anniversary of the leave vote, the OBR’s estimate of a 4 per cent loss in the UK’s long-run productivity has been borne out by declining investment and trade volumes, according to John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform.
“The 4 per cent productivity loss translates to an approximate £40 billion tax loss for the exchequer between 2019 and 2024, a period in which the government raised taxes by £100 billion. “A large chunk of [the tax rises] would not have been necessary if the UK had voted to remain in the EU or chosen a softer form of Brexit,” Springford said.”
At a time of economic uncertainty and trade wars triggered by Trump’s tariffs, the UK has sought closer alignment with the EU under the current Labour government to boost trade and investment.
The OBR has also warned that the full impact of leaving the EU would be felt over the course of 15 years and estimated a drop of 15 per cent in trade volumes, compared with if the UK had stayed in the bloc.
Nine years on, it seems as though those who had rubbished ‘experts’ for warning about the dire impact of Brexit on the economy, could do with some quiet reflection.
Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward
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