Labour has dropped to THIRD place
A bombshell new opinion poll has suggested that Labour could be on track to be ousted from the Welsh Government, with Plaid Cymru set to be the main beneficiaries.
Despite having been in government following every election since Welsh devolution was introduced in 1999, the poll puts Labour currently in third place behind both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
The poll, conducted by YouGov, found that right now, the current voting intention of people for the Senedd is as follows:
- Plaid Cymru – 30%
- Reform UK – 25%
- Labour -18%
- Tory – 13%
- Lib Dem – 7%
- Green – 5%
If that result were borne out in an election, it would see Labour’s vote share halved from what the party received in the regional vote in the 2021 Senedd election.
Things are also looking bad for the Tories. The 13 per cent they’ve received in this poll is also half the vote share they received at the last election.
Despite the Tories’ woes, the most significant result would be that Wales would likely have a first minister from a party that isn’t Labour for the first time in the history of devolution. It would also be the first time Plaid Cymru had ever topped the poll in a Senedd election.
The next Senedd election is scheduled to take place in 2026.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
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