SNP’s John Swinney ‘steadying the ship’ as tariffs test Scottish resilience

Good morning. Today we turn to Scotland, where first minister John Swinney announced he would bring forward the Scottish government’s plans owing to “yet another storm” of economic challenges. More thoughts on the wider political contest at Holyrood below.

Health and home turf

Earlier this week, John Swinney convened a press conference to outline his response to US tariffs — which Scotland’s first minister warned raised the likelihood of recession.

He brought forward his legislative programme by four months to May, arguing that spending priorities could be realigned to cope with the economic dislocation triggered by Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

“I want to make sure the UK government understands where we need them to do much more to protect Scotland’s economic interests,” he said.

Following the state takeover of British Steel last week, Swinney pressed nationalist grievances over the UK government’s supposed Anglo-centrist policy. The SNP is calling for a similar approach for Grangemouth, Scotland’s only oil refinery, which is scheduled for closure in the coming weeks.

But with limited economic levers at his disposal, his “programme for government” on May 6 will actually set out his hopes for “laser-like delivery” on domestic matters within his control, such as the NHS. A year later, he will ask the Scottish electorate to grant the SNP a third decade in power at the May 2026 Holyrood election.

On health, Swinney pointed to “encouraging signs of progress”, arguing that the NHS had “turned a corner”. He would now focus on patients feeling that “tangible progress” over the next year. His opponents counter on an almost daily basis with data showing a lack of progress.

By placing the NHS at the centre of his strategy, Swinney is playing on ground favoured by charismatic Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, a former NHS dentist who has been on the defensive since his friend Keir Starmer’s plodding start in Westminster. Labour’s cost-cutting curbs on benefits for poor families and disabled people have been relentlessly attacked by the SNP.

But Sarwar’s team have pushed back at calls from Labour insiders who argue he should stand up for Scotland by picking fights with Starmer, refusing to “play on someone else’s pitch”.

Instead, Sarwar is pitching himself as the dealmaker who can fix the NHS, improve education and devolve decision-making into the regions away from a centralising SNP government in Edinburgh.

If elected first minister, the Scottish Labour leader — youngest son of the UK’s first Muslim MP — would sweep away the SNP’s long-standing opposition to nuclear power in a bid to deliver jobs and growth to Scotland. And the tumult thrown up by Trump’s tariffs could present the UK Labour government with a new opportunity to display leadership.

But it’s a tough ask: Labour’s support north and south of the border has fallen away since the euphoria of his party’s general election victory last July.

While polls indicate general dissatisfaction with the Scottish government, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University points to worse negative sentiment towards the UK government, even among those who voted for Starmer last year.

“Swinney is not exactly catching the heather on fire, but at least he is steadying the ship,” he said.

The rise of Reform in Scotland, while less acute than England and Wales, has put the insurgent party on about 15 per cent, taking more votes from the Conservatives and Labour than the nationalists. “Reform are fragmenting the unionist vote north of the border,” he added.

While the SNP has not staged a dramatic recovery, the ruling party is now about 14 points clear in the first-past-the-post constituency vote. “They are going to pick up most constituency seats if this continues,” Curtice said.

According to pollster Mark Diffley, current polling suggests a parliament made up of SNP at 55 seats, Labour at 20, Conservatives at 17, Reform UK at 14, the Liberal Democrats at 13 and the Greens at 10.

The SNP and Greens together would, just, furnish Holyrood with a pro-independence majority, keeping the constitutional question alive for another parliamentary session.

End of an era

Speaking of the Greens, veteran MSP Patrick Harvie, announced this month he would stand down as co-leader of Scottish Greens, intending only to seek re-election as an MSP at next year’s Scottish parliament election. He took the party to its best Holyrood performance in 2021.

During the Greens’ two-and-a-half-year coalition with the SNP, Harvie and co-leader Lorna Slater leveraged modest parliamentary representation into outsized delivery of green policies, such as free bus travel for under-21s.

Former first minister Humza Yousaf precipitated his own downfall when he frogmarched the Greens out of government in April 2024.

The Greens have since gained concessions from the new Swinney government to push through its latest budget. But Swinney’s centrist administration has been unpicking elements of policy forged in partnership with the Greens, such as forcing new homeowners to install heat pumps.

Ahead of the summer leadership campaign, Harvie has called for party unity after a spate of anonymous press briefings. Within the membership, views vary on whether to maintain ideological purity or compromise to achieve green outcomes.

“There is a range of views on strategy — what is the balance between campaigning for a maximal position and setting out propositions to get through parliament,” he said.

Even if the polls are correct, a larger Green cohort of 10 MSPs would remain small and face the challenge of “how maximal a green agenda we can deliver in this session”.

Harvie suggests focusing on radical — yet deliverable — reforms, such as council tax, which is widely recognised as outdated yet politically difficult to tackle.

“There are specific changes we can take forward to be a standard bearer of a genuinely fairer society,” he said.

Now try this

I was lucky enough to see the latest incarnation of Black Country, New Road at the Queen’s Hall in Edinburgh, where a reverent crowd lapped up tracks from the British rock band’s second album, Forever Howlong. Some fans have lost the faith since singular lead singer Isaac Wood dropped out to focus on his mental health. Yes, the vibes are different, but the orchestral crescendos are as beautiful as ever.

Top stories today

• BoE in delicate balancing act | UK inflation fell more than expected to 2.6 per cent in March, providing some relief for the Bank of England as it braces itself for the economic impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs. 

• Steely-eyed scrutiny | Ministers should review the security implications of Chinese investment in all UK critical national infrastructure and supply chains in the wake of the British Steel saga, senior parliamentarians have urged.

• Reform targets Labour voters | Nigel Farage claimed that Reform UK is now the main opposition party as he called for the re-industrialisation of Britain in an attempt to win votes across Labour’s traditional northern heartlands. With just over two weeks until local elections on May 1, Farage said the party was “parking its tanks on the lawns of the red wall”.

• On the fast track | Network Rail paid almost £1mn to lobbyists who arranged meetings with top Labour figures, raising fresh questions about the adequacy of the UK’s rules banning public bodies from lobbying.