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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The writer is executive director of More in Common UK
It’s a good time to be Nigel Farage. Having won a parliamentary seat on his eighth attempt, Reform UK’s leader has built support and now narrowly leads in opinion poll averages. His party is setting the political weather.
New converts describe Farage as “authentic”, “down to earth” and “straight-talking” — a contrast to a political establishment seen as “out of touch”. Farage has capitalised on Labour’s unpopularity and tapped into impatience with politics as a whole.
It no longer seems quite so outlandish that he follows in the footsteps of political soulmate Donald Trump and ends up in charge. But our research suggests he may want the comparison to end there: Farage’s association with the US president may prove his Achilles heel.
Since last July’s general election, Reform’s vote share is up nine points, gaining women, non-voters and defectors from Labour and the Conservatives. Its newer supporters are less male, less online and more moderate: united by disillusionment with the status quo rather than ideological zeal.
To grow further, Reform’s church must broaden to those who will decide the next election. Here Farage’s Trump problem emerges. Half of Britons think the phrase “Britain’s Trump” describes Farage well and only 19 per cent disagree. But while many Reform voters approve, the electorate as a whole sees it as an indictment: 54 per cent of Reform voters like the idea, compared to only 18 per cent of the wider public. Many go further: 49 per cent think Farage is “in Trump’s pocket”.
The idea of Trump having widespread support in the UK is a mirage. Asked how they would have voted in last year’s US election, only 28 per cent of Britons picked Trump over Kamala Harris. And Farage’s closeness to Trump is cited as the top reason not to vote Reform.
Last month, speaking to voters from Llanelli and Doncaster who had voted Labour in July and were now considering Reform, we could hear why the Trump association is a turn-off — they found the US president frightening and unpredictable. Britons may be unhappy with the status quo, but memories of the chaotic Brexit years are still fresh; they recoil from more disruption.
These risks extend to policy. It is no longer enough for Reform to be a single issue anti-immigration party. But adopting a Trumpian agenda has already left Farage’s party on the wrong side of public opinion.
According to polling, at least half of voters are worried about climate change — in Nigel Farage’s own Clacton constituency, it is 68 per cent. Britain is strongly in favour of renewables, backing investment in renewables by six-to-one. Even Reform voters are twice as likely to support as oppose this, driven in part by concerns about energy security.
Reform risks misreading the public, confusing anxiety about the cost of net zero targets as outright rejection. Some worry about whether the energy transition will be fair but climate scepticism is rare. A tax on renewables, proposed by deputy Reform leader Richard Tice, is deeply unpopular.
Another area where Farage may run foul of the electorate is Ukraine. Most Britons — including seven in 10 Reform voters — see defending Ukraine as important. Brickbats thrown at Ukraine’s leader are wildly at odds with the public — only 13 per cent of the public consider Volodymyr Zelenskyy a dictator, a word Trump has conveniently forgotten using but everyone else remembers. Asked last weekend who they hold responsible for the Oval Office meltdown, the British public blames Trump and JD Vance over Zelenskyy by a margin of five to one.
Farage’s challenge now is to move from shocking to reassuring, to build credibility as much as grab airtime. Emulating Trump or, worse, appearing to be in his pocket, fails this test. Britain is not America. If he is serious about winning the keys to Downing Street, he may need to distance himself from his friend.
