These statistics reveal a shocking truth about the German election

This explains a lot

At the time of writing, results are still coming in from the German Federal Election. While we don’t yet know the final outcome, a clear picture is beginning to emerge.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has seen a significant increase in its vote share, picking up more than 20 per cent of the vote and coming in second place for the first time in its history. Meanwhile, the left wing Die Linke – which has historic links to the old East German Communist Party – also saw a significant increase in their vote share.

Support for the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) fell substantially, as did the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, all of which had been in a coalition government after the last election. The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have emerged as the largest party, despite not seeing a significant change in their vote share since the last election.

Beneath the headline figures though, some stark undercurrents are being revealed. Among the more striking are the divides that are emerging within the electorate along both age and gender lines.

The table below shows the German election results broken down by gender. It shows that women were far more likely to vote for parties on the left than men, whereas men were far more likely to vote for parties on the right, particularly the far-right AfD.

54% of men voted for either the CDU/CSU or AfD, compared to 45 per cent of women. Meanwhile, 44 per cent of women voted for either the SDP, Greens or Die Linke, compared to 33 per cent of men.

This stark divide is similarly shown when looking at differences in voting patterns by age. The table below shows how voters under 25 voted compared to those over 60.

While younger voters were more likely to back the AfD than other voters, under 25s as a whole were more likely to vote for parties of the left than over 60s.

Just 34 per cent of under 25s voted for the CDU/CSU or the AfD, compared to 52 per cent of over 60s. Meanwhile, 47 per cent of young people supported parties on the left (SDP, Die Linke, Greens), compared to 37 per cent of over 60s.

Digging deeper still, a more significant schism within the electorate has been revealed. As noted above, young people were more likely than older people to back the far-right AfD. However, this wasn’t uniform. It turns out that it was young men that were the primary driver of the AfD surge, not young women.

25 per cent of men aged between 18-24 backed the AfD, compared to 14 per cent of women aged 18-24.

In further evidence of the polarisation happening among young voters, a whopping 34 per cent of women aged 18-24 backed the far-left Die Linke, compared to just 15 per cent of men of the same age.

Overall, 42 per cent of young men backed right wing parties (AfD and the CDU/CSU), with 38 per cent backing left wing parties (SDP, Greens, Die Linke).

By contrast, 59 per cent of young women backed left wing parties (SDP, Green, Die Linke), with just 24 per cent of them backing right wing parties (AfD and the CDU/CSU).

This isn’t the first time a major election has indicated such a divide. Analysis of the 2024 US Presidential election suggested that both women and younger people were more likely to vote for Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. However, in a similar pattern to the German election, young men were more young men backed Trump than backed Harris.

Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward

Image credit: Jorge Royan – Creative Commons